'Canes aim for season sweep of Lightning

Hockey Betting Lines

03/07/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Carolina Hurricanes will shoot for a clean sweep of the season series against Tampa Bay when they visit the Lightning for tonight's Southeast Division battle at St. Pete Times Forum.

The Hurricanes are 5-0 against Tampa this season and have won six straight, eight of nine and nine of the last 11 meetings between the clubs. Carolina has also taken two in a row and three of four road tilts against the Lightning, but the Bolts have still won four of the last seven matchups on their home ice.

Carolina is battling for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and is currently just one point out of a postseason berth. With 73 points, the Hurricanes are even with Buffalo for the conference's ninth seed and are just one back of Florida, Pittsburgh and the New York Rangers, who are all tied for the final three postseason spots in the East.

The 'Canes enter tonight's test riding a two-game winning streak and are coming off Friday's lopsided win over visiting Calgary. Ray Whitney notched the third hat trick of his career as Carolina crushed the Flames, 6-1, at RBC Center.

Sergei Samsonov had a goal and an assist while Scott Walker and newly acquired Erik Cole each lit the lamp for the Hurricanes, who have won six of their last eight games. Cam Ward stopped 21 shots in the victory.

Cole returned to Carolina at Wednesday's trade deadline, coming over from Edmonton as part of a three-team deal that also involved Los Angeles. Cole is back with the club he spent the first six years of his NHL career with before he was dealt to the Oilers in the offseason in a deal which saw defenseman Joni Pitkanen come to the 'Canes.

Carolina has won five of its last seven road games and is 16-14-4 as the visiting club this season.

The Lightning, who are 19 points out of a playoff spot, have lost two straight, four of five and eight of their last 10 games.

Tampa was also in action on Friday and was dealt an overtime setback by visiting St. Louis. Brad Boyes scored just 27 seconds into OT and added two assists to lift the Blues to the 4-3 decision over the Lightning at St. Pete Times Forum.

Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos each had a goal and an assist for the Lightning. Karri Ramo was tagged for four goals on 36 shots.

Stamkos, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2008 draft, has four goals in his last five games and the 19-year-old has 31 points (14 goals, 17 assists) in 62 games during his rookie season.

Tampa is just 11-13-9 as the host this year and is capping a three-game homestand tonight. The Lightning have lost two straight and five of their last six home tests.

Cbersportsbook Hockey Betting News

<< Red Wings welcome Blue Jackets to Motown
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Red Wings will take aim at a third consecutive victory when they welcome the Columbus Blue Jackets for tonight's Central Division battle at Joe Louis Arena. The Red Wings, who won their fourth Stanley Cup title

<< Croatia routs Chile to reach Davis Cup QFs
Porec, Croatia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former champion Croatia advanced to the 2009 Davis Cup quarterfinals by grabbing an insurmountable 3-0 lead against visiting Chile in their best-of-five first-round matchup. The Croats won Saturda

<< Blues, Panthers collide in Sunrise
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of teams battling for a playoff berth in their respective conferences will meet tonight, as the Florida Panthers host the St. Louis Blues at BankAtlantic Center. The Panthers have 74 points and are currently tied wi

<< Cavs welcome Heat to town
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Cavaliers will try to bounce back from a tough loss as they welcome the Miami Heat this evening to Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavs just dropped a 105-94 decision at Boston Friday night and their four- game winn

<< Preds put win streak on the line in Philly
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The sizzling Nashville Predators will try to extend their season-high winning streak to seven games when they visit the struggling Philadelphia Flyers for tonight's interconference battle at the Wachovia Center. The Preda

Struggling Sharks try to continue dominance of Canucks >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Jose Sharks hope their recent success against Vancouver can help them get back on the right track, as they visit the surging Canucks for tonight's clash at General Motors Place. The Sharks, who have 94 points and a

Wild battle Kings in LA >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of teams fighting to remain in the Western Conference postseason race face off this afternoon at the Staples Center, where the Minnesota Wild continue a challenging road trip by taking on the Los Angeles Kings. The

Cardinals hope to soar past Mountaineers in quest for Big East title >>
Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The sixth-ranked Louisville Cardinals can clinch at least a share of the Big East Conference's regular season title tonight, as they square off against the West Virginia Mountaineers in Morgantown. The Card

Sooner State rivals square off in Norman >>
Norman, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In-state foes collide in Norman this weekend, as the fourth-ranked Oklahoma Sooners play host to the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Big 12 action from the Lloyd Noble Center. The Sooners let a golden opportunity slip

LSU visits Auburn in regular season finale >>
Auburn, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The LSU Tigers have already clinched the outright SEC regular season title, and they close out the schedule with a matchup against surging Auburn today. LSU finally said goodbye to a 10-game win streak, as they

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.