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11/09/2011 - Avondale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, November 13. Race: Kobalt Tools 500. Site: Phoenix International Raceway. Track: one-mile oval. Start time: 3:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 312. Miles: 312. 010 Winner: Carl Edwards. Television: ESPN. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN) /SIRIUS NASCAR Satellite.
Remember when Tony Stewart famously said on his team radio, "Here, kitty, kitty, kitty. Come get you some of this," while chasing down Kevin Harvick for the lead during the closing laps of the 2007 Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis, a race that Stewart went on to win.
Right now, Stewart might as well say, "Here, Carl, Carl," in regards to his battle with Carl Edwards for this year's Sprint Cup Series championship. Stewart is just three points behind Edwards with two races to go.
After finishing seventh at Talladega and then winning at Martinsville and Texas, Stewart has gained 21 points on Edwards in the last three races.
Will Stewart's momentum continue this weekend at Phoenix International Raceway?
"It shows what this Chase is going to be about," Stewart said. "It's the perfect storm, so to speak, going into these last two weeks. That's what you want. This is about as exciting as it gets, to have two guys that are down to three points with two weeks ago."
Stewart has four wins so far in this year's Chase for the Sprint Cup. He claimed victories in the first two playoff races -- Chicagoland and New Hampshire. Jimmie Johnson is the only other driver with four Chase wins in a season, doing so in 2004, '07 and '09.
This year's fall race at Phoenix should be a very interesting one. The flat one-mile track has been repaved and reconfigured since the series' most recent visit here in February.
Teams are certainly faced with the unknown heading to Phoenix, and this race could really shake up things in the fight for the championship.
"We really think next week at Phoenix has a larger opportunity by a landslide to change the outcome of this Chase," Edwards said. "That one will be a very important race. If Tony and I run 1-2 at Homestead, there's not going to be much points change if we run like we did [last Sunday at Texas], but Phoenix has the potential to be huge."
Several drivers, including Edwards and Stewart, participated in a Goodyear tire test at Phoenix in August. Sprint Cup teams were at this track last month for a two-day test session. Stewart posted the fastest lap overall in testing. No driver has yet to experience racing conditions on the newly paved surface.
"Phoenix is really a big unknown," Edwards said. "I would say this first trip will be more of a crew chief/engineer race. You're going to have to pay attention to tire wear. The setup is going to be very important. The track is very smooth and easy to drive. I don't know that you'll be able to go there and manhandle the car and hustle it around there like you could at the old Phoenix, at least not this first time."
While Edwards and Stewart have now made the Chase a two-man battle, Harvick is a distant third in points (-33), followed by Matt Kenseth (-38) and Brad Keselowski (-49).
Jimmie Johnson's hopes of winning a record-extending sixth straight Sprint Cup championship are all but gone. Johnson is now 55 points behind Edwards. He leads all drivers with four wins at Phoenix.
"From my experience there, I was a part of that first tire test and then the open test," Johnson said. "For whatever reason, if it is the asphalt or the tire, or both, and obviously the dirty air, the wind blowing dirt and being out in the middle of the desert, it takes a long time to burn in a lane that you can adjust to."
"My two times being there, you are chasing one balance of the race car, and then finally the track rubbers up. You have to back all of that out, and then you are finally on the path that you need to be on."
Edwards won last year's fall race at Phoenix. If Edwards or any other Roush Fenway Racing driver wins Sunday's Sprint Cup race or Saturday's Nationwide event here, it will mark team owner Jack Roush's 300th NASCAR victory.
Trevor Bayne gave Roush his 299th win in last Saturday's Nationwide race at Texas.
Forty-six teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Kobalt Tools 500.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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