Lookin At Lucky faces Sidney's Candy in Santa Anita Derby

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/31/2010 - Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rebel Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky and Sidney's Candy, winner of the San Vicente Stakes, highlight a field of 10 three-year-olds in Saturday's $750,000 Santa Anita Derby. The 1 1/8-mile race is the final Kentucky Derby prep at Santa Anita Park.

Lookin At Lucky, the 2009 champion two-year-old colt, has been installed as the 4-5 morning-line favorite and will start from post seven with regular rider Garrett Gomez.

Owned by Karl Watson, Mike Pegram and Paul Weltman, Lookin At Lucky is trained by Hall of Fame member Bob Baffert. The colt has won six of seven starts for more than $1.4 million.

"We were considering the Arkansas Derby on April 10 because that would have given us a week more from his last race," said Baffert, "but he worked really good here on Sunday and he's ready to run.

"Our ultimate goal is to win the Kentucky Derby and by running here on Saturday, this gives us a little extra time going into the Derby on May 1. He's done everything we've asked of him and he overcame a lot of trouble in his last race and then shipped back here real good."

Baffert has won the Santa Anita Derby five times, with Cavonnier (1996), Indian Charlie (1998), General Challenge (1999), Point Given (2001) and Pioneerof the Nile last year. He has won the Kentucky Derby three times, the last in 2002 with 20-1 longshot War Emblem.

Lookin At Lucky was second to Vale of York in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November, but came back to win the CashCall Futurity the following month at Hollywood Park.

Should the Eclipse Award honoree win the Santa Anita Derby, he would be the first two-year-old champion to win the track's top Kentucky Derby prep since Affirmed in 1978.

Sidney's Candy will break from post four with Joe Talamo back to ride. The chestnut colt is the 3-1 second choice in the program.

Sidney's Candy, trained by John Sadler, is owned by the Sid and Jenny Craig Trust. He has career earnings of $223,560 with three wins in five lifetime starts.

While the colt likes to run on lead, Sadler doesn't believe that is the only style he has.

"He doesn't have to be in front, but he does have kind of a free-running style," said Sadler. "If he's not in front, he's going to be forwardly placed, because he's that kind of horse."

Here is the complete field for the 73rd Santa Anita Derby in post position order: Posse Power, Leslie Mawing, 50-1; Thomas Baines, Joel Rosario, 50-1; Who's Up, Victor Espinoza, 20-1; Sidney's Candy, Joe Talamo, 3-1; Setsuko, Rafael Bejarano, 20-1; Caracortado, Paul Atkinson, 5-1; Lookin At Lucky, Garrett Gomez, 4-5; Cardiff Giant, Christian Santiago Reyes, 30-1; Skipshot, Frank Alvarado, 15-1; and Alphie's Bet, Alex Solis, 8-1.

Each horse will carry 122 pounds.

The Santa Anita Derby will be broadcast on NBC with a scheduled post-time of 5:36 p.m. (et).

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Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.


Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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