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01/22/2012 - Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer were both straight-set winners Sunday in fourth-round action at the Australian Open.
Nadal cruised into the quarterfinals with a 6-4, 6-4, 6-2 win over fellow Spaniard Feliciano Lopez.
The second-seeded Nadal, who is on a collision course with Federer for a possible semifinal matchup, moved to 9-2 all-time against Lopez and moved to the round-of-eight Down Under for a sixth straight year.
The last time Nadal lost before the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam was at the 2009 French Open.
"I am improving day by day," Nadal said. "But this time I felt that the first day I played well, and second, two days ago I played well. And today I played another complete match in my opinion, serious match."
Lopez, seeded 18th, is the only left-handed player to have defeated Nadal on two occasions, but he has never even won a set against his Davis Cup teammate on a hard court surface. Since the start of 2010, only three different men have defeated Nadal in Grand Slam play - Novak Djokovic (twice), David Ferrer and Andy Murray (once each).
Nadal, bidding to win his second Australian Open title (2009) and his 11th Grand Slam championship, will face No. 7 seed Tomas Berdych, who downed No. 10 seeded Spaniard Nicolas Almagro, 4-6, 7-6 (7-5), 7-6 (7-3), 7-6 (7-2).
That was a contentious match, especially at the end when Berdych refused to shake Almagro's hand. During the match, Almagro raced for a return and sent a rocket right off the right arm of Berdych, who clearly didn't like being hit.
He said so during an interview after the near four-hour match.
"When somebody wants to hit you straight in your face, I don't see this as a nice moment, especially when you have the whole court free," Berdych said.
It's a good bet Nadal will advance past Berdych as he owns a 10-3 mark against the Czech.
A third-seeded Federer, meanwhile, reached his 31st consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal with a 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 victory over Aussie sensation Bernard Tomic.
"Maybe the score suggested differently, but I thought we had a lot of long games, tough points, and I thought he did actually really well," said Federer, a four-time winner in Melbourne, who has won 20 of his last 21 matches against Australian opponents and ended the dream for the 19-year-old Tomic.
The 30-year-old Federer will take on Argentina's Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals. Del Potro blew past Germany's Philipp Kohlschreiber, 6-4, 6-2, 6-1.
The 11th-seeded Del Potro also reached the quarterfinals here as the No. 8 seed in 2009, where he suffered his worst Grand Slam defeat to date in a loss to Federer, winning just three games that entire match. He got a bit of revenge later in the year, beating Federer in the final of the U.S. Open.
The fourth round will conclude Monday with matches featuring Djokovic, the top seed, Murray, Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Djokovic will battle Aussie veteran Lleyton Hewitt, while the fourth-seeded Murray will meet Kasakhstan's Mikhail Kukushkin. Murray lost to Djokovic in last year's final and was also the runner-up to Federer two years ago.
Ferrer, the fifth seed, will take on 17th-seeded Frenchman Richard Gasquet, while the sixth-seeded Tsonga will face 24th-seeded Kei Nishikori of Japan.
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<< Strong second half leads Saint Mary's over Santa Clara
Santa Clara, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matthew Dellavedova scored 16 of his
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Legendary Penn State coach Paterno dies >>
State College, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joe Paterno, the legendary coach of Penn
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Lakers aim to rebound with Pacers in town >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Lakers can't worry about their struggles on
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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