Nadal beats Federer to reach Aussie final

Tennis Betting Lines

01/26/2012 - Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two of the all-time greats did battle in a Grand Slam event once again on Thursday, and once again it was Rafael Nadal beating his fellow former world No. 1 star Roger Federer, this time in the Australian Open semifinals.

The second-seeded Nadal secured a berth in his second Aussie Open final in four years with a 6-7 (5-7), 6-2, 7-6 (7-5), 6-4 come-from-behind victory over the third-seeded Federer at Melbourne Park.

Nadal's opponent in Sunday's final will be world No. 1 and defending champion Novak Djokovic or 2010 and 2011 Aussie runner-up Andy Murray, the fortnight's fourth seed. Djokovic-Murray will start at 3:30 a.m. ET on Friday.

The gritty Nadal broke Federer to go up 5-4 in the fourth set, and eventually converted on his second match point in the next game.

The elegant Swiss saved the first match point when Nadal swatted a backhand wide, but the Spanish strongman converted on his second when Federer sailed one final forehand beyond the baseline at Rod Laver Arena.

The match ended in 3 hours, 42 minutes, as Nadal tallied twice as many service breaks (6-3), while Federer piled up 29 more unforced errors (63-34) and five double faults. Federer struck 11 aces in a losing effort.

The 25-year-old Nadal and 30-year-old Federer met for a 27th time, and the fiery Spaniard now holds a lopsided 18-9 lifetime advantage, including an 8-2 mark in Grand Slam matchups. Nadal has now won their last five Grand Slam meetings.

Nadal also beat his great rival, in five sets, in the 2009 Aussie Open finale.

The powerful southpaw Nadal and Federer were in the same half of the draw at a major for the first time since 2005. The two superstars have met in a men's record eight major finals, with Nadal winning six of them.

Nadal is a 10-time major champ and the reigning French Open titlist. Federer, who appeared in his 30th Grand Slam semifinal, is a men's record 16-time Grand Slam winner, including a men's Open Era record-tying four Aussie championships.

Federer, who hasn't won a Grand Slam event since titling here in Melbourne two years ago, had yet to drop a set at this latest Aussie fortnight before running into the determined Nadal.

The iconic Federer appeared in his ninth straight Aussie semi on Thursday.

Nadal will now appear in his 67th career ATP-level final (46-20). He's 10-4 in Grand Slam finals, including a 1-2 mark last year.

On Friday, the good friends Djokovic and Murray, both 24 years old, will meet in a rematch of last year's Aussie title tilt, which was won easily in straight sets by the mighty Serb. The three-time Grand Slam runner-up Murray has appeared in the last two finals in Melbourne, as he lost to Federer here two years ago.

Murray was a titlist in Brisbane three weeks ago.

Djokovic is 6-4 lifetime against Britain's Murray, with their lone Grand Slam meeting coming in last year's finale here. The Serb is 3-0 when they've met in semifinals of a tournament.

The capable Murray is still seeking his first-ever major title.

The reigning Aussie Open, Wimbledon and U.S. Open titlist Djokovic is a four- time major champion who has won two of the last four Aussie Open titles, with his first one coming in 2008.

He has won 37 of his last 39 Grand Slam matches and is seeking a third straight major title. A championship this week would put him in select company, as only four players -- Laver, Pete Sampras, Federer and Nadal -- have captured three straight Grand Slam titles in the Open Era (since 1968).

Djokovic, Nadal and Federer have combined to win seven of the last eight Aussie Open championships.

Sunday's big winner will collect more than $2.4 million.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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