Packers Can Badly Injure Saints' Playoff Hopes

Football Betting Lines

11/21/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Monday night could represent something of a last stand for the New Orleans Saints.

Despite being picked by many to win the NFC South prior to the season, Sean Payton's team finds itself at a disappointing 5-5 heading into their primetime tilt with the Green Bay Packers at the Superdome, a mark that has them alone in last place in the surprisingly strong division.

New Orleans managed to stave off postseason irrelevance with a 30-20 win at the struggling Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday, but if recent history is any indication, that victory is not a sign of good things to come for the Saints.

Payton and company have yet to string together as much as a two-game winning streak this season, with their four previous victories each followed up with a deflating defeat.

Perhaps the inspirational setting of the Superdome, a venue the Saints haven't set foot in since way back on Oct. 12th, will bring out the best in the team.

Since beating the Raiders, 34-3, that day, the team has participated in road games in Carolina, Atlanta, and Kansas City, played a would-be home contest against the Chargers in London as part of the NFL's international series, and also experienced a bye week.

When factoring in next week's important NFC South trip to Tampa Bay, the Saints will have played but one home date in a span of 55 days.

Fans in attendance on Monday in New Orleans will once again get the chance to witness first-hand the exploits of quarterback Drew Brees, who remains on pace to break one of the league's longest-standing and impressive offensive records.

With 3,251 passing yards on the season to date, Brees is on pace to throw for 5,202 yards, which would shatter Dan Marino's single-season NFL mark of 5,084, set in 1984. The Pro Bowler must average 305.7 yards per game over his final six games in order to set the new mark, and could have one of his top targets in tow to help him on Monday.

Running back Reggie Bush, who has missed three games due to a meniscus tear suffered against the Panthers on Oct. 19th, is considered questionable to return to the lineup for the Saints. Despite his absence, Bush continues to rank second on the team's receiving chart with 42 catches.

The visiting Packers, meanwhile, also enter Monday night's tilt at 5-5, but that record puts them in much better shape than the Saints thanks to the relative weakness of the NFC North.

Green Bay scored an important 37-3 rout of the rival Chicago Bears last week, and that result, coupled with a Minnesota loss at Tampa Bay, sent the North top spot into a three-way deadlock as Week 12 began.

The Packers had gone 2-5 in their seven games preceding the Chicago win.

SERIES HISTORY

Green Bay has a 14-6 lead in its all-time series with New Orleans, but was a 34-27 home loser in the most recent meeting, in Week 2 of the 2006 season. The Packers won the previous meeting, a 52-3 Lambeau Field rout when the teams met in Week 5 of the 2005 campaign. The Packers were 35-20 losers when they last visited the Superdome, in 2002, and last won in the Big Easy in 1995.

Packers head coach Mike McCarthy is 0-1 against both the Saints and Payton.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

Though he's yet to match the won-loss results of his legendary predecessor, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (2351 passing yards, 15 TD, 6 INT) has been a productive, efficient quarterback in his first season as a starter. Rodgers carries a solid 94.5 passer rating into Monday's game, and comes off a fine outing against the Bears in which he completed 23-of-30 passes for 227 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Top wideouts Greg Jennings (48 receptions, 5 TD) and Donald Driver (45 receptions, 3 TD) have been integral in Rodgers' success, and tight end Donald Lee (29 receptions, 3 TD) has been a credible target over the middle for the team as well. Jennings had five grabs for a game-high 64 yards and a touchdown against the Bears, while Lee posted a team-best six catches in the victory. The more encouraging development for the Green Bay offense in recent weeks has been the re-emergence of running back Ryan Grant (770 rushing yards, 3 TD), who has snapped out of his early-season funk to average 102.3 rushing yards with three touchdowns scored over his past four games. Grant went for a season-best 145 yards versus Chicago a week ago, and backup Brandon Jackson (157 rushing yards, 1 TD, 25 receptions) added 50 yards on 10 ground carries.

With injuries having knocked former starting corners Mike McKenzie (knee) and Tracy Porter (wrist) out for the season, and veteran Aaron Glenn (ankle) unavailable for at least one more game, Rodgers figures to take some shots downfield against the Saints. Corners Randall Gay (30 tackles), Jason David (13 tackles, 1 INT), and Usama Young (25 tackles, 1 INT) will be tested, with safeties Roman Harper (52 tackles) and Kevin Kaesviharn (56 tackles, 1 INT) needing to be on their toes as well. Young had the only interception of Kansas City's Tyler Thigpen last Sunday. The New Orleans pass rush comes off a rare strong day in which it managed four sacks, with ends Will Smith (32 tackles, 3 INT), Bobby McCray (14 tackles. 4 sacks), and Jeff Charleston (5 tackles, 2 sacks) all getting in on the act. The Saints are 26th in the league against the pass (235.2 yards per game). The team ranks a modest 19th in the league against the run (111 yards per game), but did a nice job against Larry Johnson and the Chiefs' running game a week ago. A pair of goal line stands helped limit Kansas City to short field goal attempts. Tackles Sedrick Ellis (16 tackles, 1 sack) and Kendrick Clancy (25 tackles, 2 sacks) are decent run- stoppers at the point of attack, and linebackers Jonathan Vilma (79 tackles, 1 INT) and Scott Fujita (44 tackles, 1 INT) serve as two of the primary playmakers operating behind them.

WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL

Thanks to Brees' prolific ways, the Saints entered Week 12 leading the league in both total offense (411.5 yards per game) and passing offense (319.7 yards per game). The signal-caller actually comes off of a sub-standard passing day for him, as the Chiefs "held" Brees (18 TD, 11 INT) to 266 yards on 23-of-30 passing with a touchdown and an interception. Lance Moore (52 receptions, 5 TD) continued his breakout season with eight catches for 102 yards in the win, Marques Colston (15 receptions) added value with three grabs for 30 yards, and problematic tight end Jeremy Shockey (30 receptions) finished with six catches to earn his keep. The possible return of Bush would have a positive impact on both the passing attack and a running game that ranks just 28th in the league (91.8 yards per game). That said, Bush (294 rushing yards, 8 overall TD) might compete for caries with Pierre Thomas (238 rushing yards, 4 TD, 16 receptions), who had a solid game with 16 carries, 88 yards, and a touchdown in Kansas City. Thomas also contributed 56 yards worth of receptions to the victory. Brees was not sacked against the Chiefs, and has been dropped just eight times all year.

A physical, playmaking Green Bay secondary will look to solidify their reputation on Monday against the best passing attack in the league. Packers defensive backs Charles Woodson (30 tackles, 2 sacks) and Nick Collins (48 tackles) are tied for the league lead in interceptions (5), Green Bay has a league-best six interceptions for touchdowns on the year, and the Packers are allowing opponents to complete a league-low 51.5 percent of their passes. Woodson, Al Harris (8 tackles), and fellow cornerback Tramon Williams (38 tackles, 4 INT) should all have an active role against the New Orleans wideouts on Monday, with safeties Collins and Atari Bigby (18 tackles) helping out over the top. Looking to put some pressure on the mostly untouchable Brees will be end Aaron Kampman (39 tackles, 7.5 sacks), who has nearly half of the team's modest total of 17 sacks on the year. Green Bay's defensive Achilles' heel is against the run, a problem that didn't get any better when middle linebacker Nick Barnett was lost for the year with a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago. Second-year-pro A.J. Hawk (49 tackles, 2 sacks) has shifted to the middle, and had seven tackles last week in helping limit the Chicago running game to 83 yards. The Packers were No. 27 in the league against the run (147.4 yards per game) as Week 12 began.

FANTASY FOCUS

The Packers' offensive principles have been hot-and-cold this year, but all represent strong plays on Monday night against a suspect New Orleans defense. Rodgers, Grant, Jennings, Driver, Lee, and kicker Mason Crosby are all credible plays. Ironically, one of the most reliable aspects of the team from a fantasy perspective - the playmaking defense - might be worth sitting down on Monday night against Brees and a Saints attack that always finds a way to score points.

On the New Orleans side, Brees and his top receivers Moore and Colston all deserve a place in the starting lineup, though it's tough to know just how many touches Bush will get, or how effective he'll be. He's a risky play, but potentially one with a high reward as well. Don't get anywhere near the New Orleans defense, and only play kicker Garrett Hartley if you're desperate.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

This is a vitally important game for both sides, so wondering which team will show more emotion is pointless - they'll both be sky-high. The part of the analysis that matters here relates to which is the more complete team, and the conclusion to that study will come out in the Packers' favor every time. For all of its exciting play, the Saints remain a one-trick pony, with or without Reggie Bush in the lineup. New Orleans doesn't run the ball well or play good defense, while the Packers have shown good offensive balance in recent weeks and have played well against the pass all year. Look for Rodgers to out-duel Brees here, and for Green Bay to walk away as a first-place team in the NFC North.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Packers 38, Saints 24